Possible Worlds and Covid-19


We are in the midst of a pandemic. As nations around the world respond to it, models of varying kinds are being generated to give policy-makers, practitioners, and others some kind of insight into the implications of all sorts of responses to the pandemic. Each model involves a bunch of assumptions—many of which are hidden in the mathematics—ranging from estimates about the number of actual infections, rate of infection, prevalence of co-morbidities, demographics of regions, infection death-rates, confirmed infection death-rates, duration of virus, etc. etc. etc. 

Each model is representing a possible world! Did you notice that? Every model—and these are being relied upon by each and every country’s leaders in the world right now—is a prediction of what the world will look if x is true and we do y (to simplify quite a bit). Change x a bit and leave y alone and we get a new future; leave x alone and change y a bit and we get a new future; change both x and y a bit and we get a new future. For every change in x or y, we get a new future. That is, for every change in x or y we get a new possible world. 

A possible world is simply a way the world could be. The various models that scientists the world over are generating to help policy-makers and others decide the wisest courses of action are simply ways the world could be. So, the various models are simply possible worlds. Of course, they are really just partial worlds since the models do not include things like positions of electrons, stars, planets, the number of trees, leaves, raindrops, etc, which a complete possible world includes. But those things are assumed in the models. You can’t do science, whether that is science done during a pandemic or not, without possible worlds. 

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